Groningen, The Netherlands. Voters in The Netherlands, especially those most committed to their parties, believe that people who do not cast a ballot support their own party — even when they know surveys suggest the opposite.

The process called social projection enables us to think most of the others agree with us, which helps us to validate our beliefs and ourselves.


Psychologists have found that we tend to think people who are similar to us in one explicit way — say, religion or lifestyle — will act and believe as we do, and vote as we do. Meanwhile, we exaggerate differences between ourselves and those who are explicitly unlike us. But what about people whose affiliation is unknown — who can't easily be placed in either the in-group or the out-group? The findings will appear in an upcoming issue of Psychological Science.



Namkje Koudenburg is currently working toward her Ph.D. at the University of Groningen.

Her research mainly concerns group dynamics, examining the effects of conversational flow and silences on social needs and perceptions of consensus."Non-voters are an ambiguous group," says Namkje Koudenburg, a graduate student at the University of Groningen, in the Netherlands, who studies social validation and "what it means when people remain silent." That ambiguity allows voters and politicians to exaggerate the influence or size of their own party.

Koudenburg — along with Groningen colleagues Tom Postmes and Ernestine H. Gordijn — demonstrated this phenomenon in two studies.

Study 1: Local Elections

In the first study, 116 voters were recruited at local polling places during city council elections in 2010.

• After casting votes, the participants were asked what party they'd vote for in Parliamentary elections three months later; what percentage of votes they estimated their party would win; and then what percentage it would win if non-voters were to participate.
  
  
• The result: In this second, all-inclusive tally, voters expected their support base to be 17 percent larger than in the first.

Study 2: National Elections

• The second study took place several weeks before national elections, when presumably political passions were higher. In three cities, 207 participants approached on the streets told interviewers which of the seven major parties they intended to vote for.
  
  
• Two questions assessed their commitment to voting for that party.
  
  
• They were then given the actual forecasts of the distribution of votes among those parties and told that not everyone would vote.
  
  
• Asked how many votes their own party would get if everyone cast a ballot, respondents again overestimated. And the more partisan voters overestimated even more.

"People want to validate their opinions, to believe their opinions are right," says Koudenburg.

• They are also motivated to promote their party's success, which entails convincing others that it represents the majority's beliefs.
  
  
• The researchers aren't certain whether these exaggerations are conscious strategies or unconscious wishes.

Further research might help sort that out. In the meantime, Koudenburg says, the study suggests one problem caused by non-voting:

• Voters, candidates, and the political leaders who win can claim greater popular affirmation for their positions than might really exist.
  
  
• By enlarging the imaginary in-group, citizens "can use low turnout to strengthen their biases."

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