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| Do Democratic and Republican Presidents Have Similar Economic Records? |
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| Nation - Politics | |||
| TS-Si News Service | |||
| Sunday, 07 February 2010 03:00 | |||
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Buffalo, NY, USA. James Campbell finds no differences in economic growth, unemployment or income equality among American presidents. Campbell, a professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, has published an analysis that counters the widely publicized work of Princeton political scientist Larry Bartels in his recent book Unequal Democracy. [C1] Bartels says Democratic presidents have generally done a better job handling the economy, with greater economic growth, lower unemployment, and slightly reduced income-inequality under Democratic presidents. As he sees it, Democrats have a better record across the board. Campbell says Bartels is incorrect. In A Refutation of 'Unequal Democracy', a paper he recently presented at the Northeastern Political Science Meeting. [C2] Campbell concludes, after reexamining the economic data, that there have been no significant differences in the economic records of the two presidential parties over the past 60 years. Both Campbell and Bartels obtained the data for their studies from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the U.S. Census Bureau. "The problem with Bartels' analysis of the economic records of the two parties," says Campbell, "is that it does not take into account the state of the economy inherited by the new president. Bartels' finding of a partisan difference depends entirely on the way in which he treats transition periods from one party to the other. Campbell notes that the two political parties are different in many significant ways, "and may even have important long-term economic differences between them", but they do not differ with respect to the performances of the economy during their administrations.Campbell reviewed the economic history of the past six decades. He found that whenever the country was moving from a Democratic to a Republican presidency, the economy was weak and often slipping into recession. "Truman left Eisenhower, Johnson left Nixon and Carter left Reagan with economies that were going into recession as they left office and, while the economy was not technically in recession when Bill Clinton turned the keys to the White House over to George W. Bush," Campbell says, "the dot-com bubble was bursting and the economy was on the brink of a recession". "In blaming Republican presidents for the economic problems inherited from the previous Democratic presidents, Bartels has unfortunately added insult to injury." Based on his reading of the historical economic data, Campbell finds that, "From 1948 to 2005, Republican presidents were quite consistently left with an economic mess by their Democratic predecessor. This had not been the case for incoming Democratic presidents — until now. "While there can and should be much debate over what caused the current recession, it obviously started on the watch of Republican President Bush," Campbell says. "However, unlike the earlier transition recessions, the current recession began early enough that it should not consume President Obama's term, unless his policies end up stalling the economic recovery. "The key difference between Bartels' analysis and mine," he says, "is that I examined the effects of the lagged quarterly change in the economy on the following year's economy. Once you take into account the impact of the two quarters leading into a year, the party differences that Bartels found in economic growth, unemployment and income-inequality wash out." Campbell notes that the two political parties are different in many significant ways, "and may even have important long-term economic differences between them", but they do not differ with respect to the performances of the economy during their administrations. "Republican presidents were no more responsible for the economic downturns early in their terms," he says, "than Franklin Roosevelt was responsible for the Depression in the early '30s or than Barack Obama was responsible for the recession in the early quarters of his administration." Citation[C1] Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age. Larry M. Bartels. Princeton University Press (April 7, 2008). ISBN-10: 0691136637; ISBN-13: 978-0691136639.
[C2] A Refutation of Unequal Democracy: The Myth that Democratic Presidents Improve Economic Growth and Income Equality. James E. Campbell. Northeastern Political Science Association; Prepared for presentation at the 2009 Annual Meeting (November 19-21, 2009). Download PDF Abstract Larry Bartels in Unequal Democracy claims that Democratic presidents from 1948 to 2005 were generally more successful than Republican presidents in spurring economic growth and in reducing both unemployment and inequality in the distribution of incomes. This paper refutes those claims. Bartels’ findings depend on the treatment of transition periods from one party to the other. The economies at the time of transitions from Democratic to Republican presidents were weak and often slipping into recession. Aside from the Bush to Obama transition in progress, this was not the case for transitions from Republican to Democratic presidents. The economy that presidents inherit should be taken into account in assessing the economic performance of presidents. The weak economies that Republican presidents inherited should be attributed to their Democratic predecessors and not to the Republicans who were left to deal with the economic mess. When the transition periods are assigned to their predecessor presidents, or at least set aside, and when economic conditions leading into a year are taken into consideration, there are no partisan differences in the stimulation of economic growth, in unemployment rates, or in the reduction of income inequality.
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Do Democratic and Republican Presidents Have Similar Economic Records? Sunday, 07 February 2010
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